In view of recent political developments, and its modern history, it is imperative to come to understanding that Nepal?s socio-economic development guided by people?s participation in decision making would be achieved if all will work on to further the cause of democracy and development.
In this regard, taking into account of existing political entities, identification of and emergence of a system where people are the decisive force to envisage the function of the country would be of betterment of the country and its people. With Monarchy, the house of Shahs, considered as the national unity symbol by some section of the society, emerging republican voices, Maoists movement with arms struggle to establish republican communist state, and political parties having faith in parliamentary democracy, it has been prerequisite to adjust the political understanding between these diverging forces.
In present situation of Nepal, where state of emergency has been declared, and all political rights has been suspended, we should look into immediate solution to present crisis and move ahead for future courses.
With Royal Nepal Army being mobilized to crush the Maoists insurgency at one hand and to quell the political dissidence, Nepal is heading towards complete meltdown of the social fabric. The sovereignty of Nepal is in jeopardy, and this could result Nepal to loose it nationality or be like a Lebanon.
Scenario 1:
Government forces, suppressing the human rights and political freedom, might be able to fight with Maoists forces. In that scenario, if Maoists leadership decides to take the fight head on, which appears to be at present, there would killing of thousands of Nepal?s citizen, both Maoists and army personnel. Winning RNA will not heed to bring political changes that would guarantee the political freedom. Nepal would be virtually in de facto military rule. This might give temporary sigh to people of Kathmandu who might not have felt the brunt of military intervention, however large swathe of the country would be traumatized by direct impact to their family (low ranking army personnel are from outside Kathmandu Valley, apart from Maoists cadres), the collateral damage, and civilians in cross fire.
During this war, Nepal might observe refugee exodus going towards India. This might trigger Delhi to look into taking the matter in their hand. Though Nepal and India has a treaty that allows Nepali to integrate into Indian economic system, however, the traumatized population looking for refuge in India would not be in a position to be integrated into the economic system of India as house hold helpers, watch man, nanny etc. Thus, there would be refugee camp in the Indian soil, because India is obliged by international law to support the refugee. In this scenario, if India decides to use its military clout, and if India decides to send Gurkha regiment in Nepal, then whole scenario would be different. This could be a possible scenario because most of the members of its Gurkha regiment (serving and retired) are from hill regions of Nepal, and this region is the conflict zone. The prevailing situation in hill might disturb the members of Gurkha regiment and there could be pressure from Gurkha Jawans to look into the matter. Just due to lack of vision of military commanders in Nepal, we might be virtually under Indian rule.
Scenario 2:
RNA, due to stretching of it to quell the political dissidence in Kathmandu and other urban areas including district head quarters, heavy presence in and around royal palace, might not be able to win, however, could be able to tame the Maoists to control Kathmandu and district head quarters. The King will be like a mayor of Kathmandu. This will have heavy impact in the economic dynamics. Then also, we will see economic refugee problem. Out of 27 million Nepal?s population we have around 6 million in India. Keeping conservative number of Nepal?s family configuration to be 4 members per family, this 6 million would try to bring at least 2 member of the family which they might be able to support. So we will have 12 million in India. However, the middle class or semi middle class families would not be able to absorb by this 6 million. Due to the economic stagnancy, half of the population residing in India, the country?s middle class, and small entrepreneur class will have grave situation for survival and they will be moving towards low economic groups. This will have heavy impact.
Since economy of India?s northern states bordering Nepal heavily depend on economic activities of Nepal, they will have impact and local politicians from this region would put pressure to central government to intervene. In this scenario, India might regulate the movement of Nepali to India. We will have large number of population residing in towns around the border to India with hope of going to India. These towns are not in a position to adjust this economically displaced people and we will see increase in crimes and other activities for sustenance and the government forces would not be able to control because they are already occupied with quelling political dissidence. And if political forces could not be able to properly channel then Nepal would be a failed state. If the political forces would be able to channel them, then king has to fight two wars, one political and other military with Maoists, the forces would be exhausted and might see melt down of the RNA, mutiny, of just disintegration, and then also we will pay a lot of price.
Scenario 3:
Due to the stretching of the RNA personnel, exhaustion with prolonged military intervention, rising political dissidence, if Maoists appear to win the war, India would send its army to work along in tandem to RNA but virtually taking the command. Nepal, for some years, would be like Lebanon with Indian army presence for security. This war will also bring big toll in human life, both RNA personnel, Maoists, and likely the army would be Gurkha regiment thus its personnel who are Nepali. As in scenario one, we will have refugee exodus, and India need to accommodate them and in due course repatriate them. What will be left to us would be Nepal under Indian command.
Scenario 4:
King, after rounding up some of the leaders of political parties under corruption charges, might seek to work along with political parties under his terms. Political parties, under some pressure, might decide to work with King for limited freedom to save the sovereignty. However, this will not be acceptable to Maoists, and we will see again war with Maoists in military command. Same like scenario 1.
Scenario 5:
Political parties and Maoists form a united front with their minimal common program. This would be a republican state for Maoists to come to the political front for understanding. This will not be acceptable to King, however. Army will quell the movement by political parties, high toll in human life. King will ultimately give power, Nepal army would be disintegrated, and to fill the vaccum, India will send the troops, and start a new army. Indian troops would be in Nepal for 5 -10 years.
Scenario 5:
King, understanding the mistakes he has done, with the international channel through India, would mend his differences with the political parties, and political parties assure him for constitutional monarch, even through constitutional assembly, then probably we could look into communication channel to Maoists, either through domestic contacts or through Delhi via Delhi?s link to Andhra Pradesh outfit with whom Andhra government is negotiating, to come to common agenda. King being observer in the negotiation, however, building confidence with the political parties that they would support constitutional monarchy in days ahead.
This can be done by reinstalling parliament, forming all party government with full executive power, initiating dialogue with Maoists, and finally going to constituent assembly, and promulgating new constitution.
This is just my analysis of Nepal. What could be possible outcome?
Jai Nepal
