I noticed the dollar is going up against Nrs. anyone expert in economy has any view/comments? any forcasts?

Based on what my economics profeddor told me the dollar will start picking up around the end of semester. Thats all I can say and I have no idea on what basis he stated so. Hope this helps Eagle5.

 

Sparrow

no the dollar will not rise... its going down in a few weeks/months.

Whether the $ will go up or down vs NPR depends on whether the foreign investment into India continues or the investors pull out their funds. Based on the latest reports, as the cost of doing business increases in China, due to appreciation in Chinese Yuan and also the new Labor standard, Western companies are moving their production to Vietnam and India. If this trend continues, then Indian currency, and by default the NPR too, will definitely appreciate against the dollar. Of course, the whole scenario will change if NPR gets devalued against the INR.

Another strike against the dollar is the low interest rate in the US. As the economy is faltering, the Fed has reduced the interest rates and that is driving the money out of US (seeking higher return).

The third strike against the dollar is the rising price of oil. As the price of oil has increased rapidly, the US is having to send more dollars abroad.

The only good thing going for dollar is that the US export is surging due to low valuation of $ against the Euro, Pound and Yen.

Hence, it seems unlike that the $ will rise in next few months.

Texas...nice analysis! Thanks

hahaha...A lotta currency strategists looming beyond their confimes here.  The value of NPR is pegged to the INR, so if India's economy does well and if they have a trade-surplus and their other economic indicators show a positive aggregate growth in the economy along with the technicals that show the dollar has still not bottomed out (the FX market is huge on technicals), we could see the US$ getting beat...Also, the whole Iran scenario and the election results will determine the strength of the US$.  If the war mongering Republicans win (and with the Iran issue still ferrying on our docks), the enitre world would be short US$...So far, too early to call on anything now.  But, I for one would stay short on the US$ even today...Hold it for the long run.

Cramer of Mad Money too gets it wrong all the time.  He had Bear Stearns as a Buy days before the stock tanked to $2.  If experts get their forecasts wrong, why blame me if the US$ has indeed bottomed out and starts strengthening.  LOLs

Keep monitoring the INR rate with USD folks... USD ups and downs has nothing to do with Nepalese economy. Allow me to explain how exchange rates are determined in Nepal.

The treasury department in Nepalese Banks determines the foreign currency exchange rates. Most of the banks use Active 8 or Telerate software to fix the exchange rate. This software basically gives the cross rate with INR. INR and NPR are pegged with fixed rate of 1.60 so it easy for the banks to convert the exchange rate multiplying by 1.60. The NPR converted exchange rates are sent to FEDAN (Federation of Dealers Association of Nepal) which compiles the rate from all commercial banks and development banks which are permitted to do forex transactions. FEDAN calculates the mean (average) and sends it to Nepal Rastra Bank and next day in daily newpapers it is published.

Texas RN

Your points are convincing to me.

The election outcome is also likely to shape the dollar. Billions spent in war brings more debt to the nation. Money intended for infrastructure boost up and economic revival are outflowing. Once the new president takes the reign and his/her economic policies come into effect, the dollar will hopefully take its way up or down. May be, we can expect this to happen Feb/March 09 onwards.

 

i agree with what texas said but there are few other points...

Going by what Ben Bernanke had to said after the last Fed meetings, the fed is done with lowering the fed funds rate for now...so it seems from the interest rate side dollar slide might be over ...this is also justified by the fact that during the last few weeks dollar has gained against Euro and Yen..

However one of the prime concerns in India right now is Inflation. With elections nearby, the Indian Finance Minister has reiterated his commitment to tackle inflation, which implies that interest rate in India will probably continue to increase....cetreus paribus, this will cause INR to appreciate against dollar...

Overall, textbook economics model says that US dollar still has to go down because of huge trade deficit that US runs against its major trading parterns...however this argument has been proven wrong in the early 2000's because of the so called "global savings glut"  - i.e. people from all over the world were investing in US treasury because US treasury bonds are the most safe investments. Recently there has been talks of countries, predominatry China and other oil countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia diversifying their dollar assets...this might affect future course of dollar..

 

 

 

 

1Rsup today compare to yesterday.-05.14.08

i told ya all,,... us $ is going down.

samsara,  i need to win the CNBC million $ portfolio challenge.

give me your best picks for short term fx trading... i will see just how good u really are or not.
 

Shut da fug up latoboy...Why da hell would I want to help you win a challenge, son?  hahahaha  And you want me to prove myself to you in FX trading?  FX is huge (ain't you garage shop opreation, foolio)...which market?  The Spots/Forwards (Swaps,etc.)/Options and Futures (Strangles/Straddles,etc)/Structured Options?IR Swaps, etc.?  Name it, dumbazz?  Well, let my record with the IB I'm in speak for itself.  I don't need to prove a jack to anyone here, damn lunatic!

oh shit the cnbc game currency trading is not working at the moment.

samsara, the only thing stopping me with FX trading right now is the market is crazy... so im not even going to try FX trading yet.

help me make a $1 million and i will give u respect, otherwise u can continue to suffer from my cyber sajha e-gangsta attacks. i will continue putting u down on all postings.

latoboy, listen shitfugck, you wanna sell your soul for virtual money?  If it was the real green-backs, I'd be glad to oblige, azzhole!  And I hope you realize that I don't trade outrights until I feel that there is a 70%+ probability in my expectations, foolio.  Learn risk management skills before even beginning to trade.  Go read the fundamentals and the basics in "Trading for a Living" and "Trading in the Zone" before you even begin trading...All I've seen you talk about in the other thread are outrights...You'd get wiped if the market does a U-Turn on you, son!  Hedge your bets and learn them quick as the market turmoil is not over yet.  BTW, for FX Trading look up Cornelius Luca's books.  He's an FX trading guru unlike the other wannabes we have at those cheap websites like forexnews and forexfactory.

..FX trading is not my thing.. i dont want to risk losing my shirt to make big bucks..

in hindsight, i should have gone Long AUD/short US$ for the last 3 years.  or long Swiss /short US dollar...

easy money.

when u know u have 95% sure bet, come back and post a recommendation... i will make a trade...

latoboy, all I know is that with your risk exposure and outright mentality, I'm going short on your career as a trader.  All the best after losing that shirt on your back!!

how about Short samsara long latoboy

i will short your picks... and see if i can make big bucks.

Didn't I just say I'd short you (and your career as a trader)...Can dumbazzes like you be a lil more original, son??  Learn to adapt or see the market slaughter you.

As per the marktes: "Bulls and Bears make money...Pigs get slaughtered."

im going to copy a line from the movie 300... where they say "we'll fight in the shade" referring to the persians 10,000 arrows aimed at the spartans.

samsara, "Bulls and Bears make money...Pigs get slaughtered.".... i say, COOL then LET the feast begin... im hungry.....

latoboy, keep quoting movies that really have no direct realtioships to the markets at all...It'll hasten the process of where you lose the shirt on your back!  LMAO  Learn to quote from Sun TZu's "The Art of War" like Gordon Gecko does in Wall Street.  You quoting 300?  That just shows how pigs like you will be slaughtered back to the stone ages.  What a dumbfugck and his name proves it too!!