Though it is difficult to predict what the real outcomes of King Gyanendra?s decision to hijcak democracy would be, it is certain, if done in a planned manner, that it has provided the Maoist of Nepal many levers of change. Now the king has directly challenged the Maoists.
Bigger question is this: What should the role of the political parties be in this situation?
Should they join the Maoist??which the Maoists were hoping would happen all along in the event the king decided to takeover. But will it ?
The Maoists of Nepal were fighting on many fronts: they were fighting with the king, they were fighting with other political parties. Now their frontier for the battle has been narrowed down to one. It is easy to fight one battle at a time. Now the king would have to fight battles in different frontiers: the Maoists, the political parties, the ordinary citizens who do not trust him. How will he do it? Does he have a plan?
Only way he can win this battle would be if he could triple the number of security forces, and make someone who knows the ins and outs of the Maoist the PM of Nepal. Whoever that may be.
It is a guarantee that the king will not go for 2017 style. He cannot, even if he tries.
The next step for the king is to bring the Maoists at the negotiating table. And, the Maoist had all along been saying that they wanted to talk with the king. Now they can. The question again is: what would the talk between the Maoist and the king be?
If the political parties support the Maoist, then we need to start thinking about what the new structure of the government would look like under republican set up. It is not a far fetched idea now.
One thing is sure?this king has proven that he does like to take risks, which is not a bad trait in a king. However the it would be quite interesting to see if his calculation was right or he has completely put a wrong value in the equation.
How America, Britain and India treat this will define the direction in the near future. I am sure the Maoists are partying right now. Now the king hasgiven them a true agenda: that they are fighting for true democracy.
Tuesday?s decision of the king does give the Maoist a real purpose. If they can market it, it is possible that loktantrik system might be just around the corner.
The king must distinguish between the map and the territoty. He confuses between them, there is a reall chance that he will have the map and Maoist will have the territory. if he is has a clear cut idea about the map and territory, there is a possibility that he might actually be able to establish peace in the country. The question remains: should he be the absolute monarch he is able to restore peace in Nepal?
Both the Maoists and the King wanted to do away with BAHUDAL, both have succeeded at least for now, at least for a few days or even for few weeks. King probably is thinking that his situation is like Pakistani President. If he was banking on this, he is confused. He does not have Osama-Bin-Laden in his country to have American support. But I am sure he has already consulted with or given a hint to America and India on this and probably has gotten a noncommittal nod. Let?s see how it goes.
If things go the wrong way than he has imagined, the institution of monarchy is in danger. It is a big gamble, there are two potentials: there is an enormous opportunity in front of him to be a real hero and there is also the chance that this might be the last generation of kings in Nepal. It will depend on his action and the role political parties will play.
