I had promised that I was going to start my own thread regarding stock investments and the markets. So many things have happened since last time I was here and I really do not feel like sharing my knowledge. But a promise is a promise and there have been few people that have emailed me and supported me.

This thread will deal with investing in the stock markets. I will not discuss individual stocks but discuss ETFs like SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ. The one good thing about trading ETFs compared to individual stocks is the the ETFs provide instant diversification among similar companies within the same sector.

I will post more as we go along, regarding entry-price, profit-target and stop-losses. I do not think that any ETF is good or bad. It is good only if I'm making money and bad if I'm losig money.

If you have not been in the market so far, please read this as an information piece only rather than my recommendations. There is risk involved and you should know how much risk to take on any position.

Any suggestations, comments and criticisms are welcome as long as it is market related. If this thread gets out of hand and we start discussing off-topics, I'll stop posting.

Have a happy new year!!!! May 2007 bring you and your family lots of joys and riches.

What are the downside and upside of buying AAPL? Please enlighten me. Thanks

This should be interesting. But here's what I think:

Downside:
1.First at almost 104 dollars a share, it's too expensive for an ordinary everyday investor. 100 shares=100*100=$10,000. Pretty pricey.

2. Apple is one stock that trades well into pre and after market. I've seen it trade more than two hours after market close with a good volume, so unless you can be glued to your computer and your trading system, any tiny hint of "bad" news can knock the socks off of this stock. I see it this way- the faster it goes up, the faster it can also come down. While such a shakeout may not usually last long, for a new investor, it can be very emotional draining.

Upside:

This is the sexiest computer company out there and sex sells. Steve Jobs has himself said that its not just quality that sells, it's how appealing it is to a consumer that sells.
Now apple is at $100. Imagine this: it doesnt even have all the additions to its system that a PC has such as gaming compatibility and advanced computation capabilities- it's still primarily design and entertainment- it's like a cutie without the booty- and she's gonna get it very soon.

I'm bullish on Apple. If you are gonna buy it, it's doubled this past year but that doesn't mean it's not gonna triple. Give it a shot. Get out once you see some downside. Don;t be afraid if it goes 3-4% below your entry. Use a stop. One should be able to milk it for 10-15% in the next 3-4 months. Buy it 30 minutes after the opening bell after the price stabilizes.

TT,
thanks for holding the thread, utmostly.

Emini,
you got a torch here holding high your aspirations. Kudos to you, to have at least few peeps who can carry on with your visions.

Bri
get out of pay-check syndrome???? gotta work for living, and this week looks like one hell of a busy affair. Lots of reports and accountability.

Gary Smith
I am almost done. let me read Dravis and the other two. And I am up and running.

To the rest
will anyone be brave enough to venture out?

Best~!

-B

ps, TT I owe you a reply.By COB tomorrow, I promise, hai ta!

Mr Hyde,

my wifey gave me this IPOD with inscription that read:

with love to babs.

And I read somewhere on the product:

designed in California, made in China.

You figure the rest!

Best~!

-B

ps find out who is making the chips for the darn talked about that Iphone. You got heaps of monies to be made on that stock.

Thanks for your inputs.

As of today with the record high closing price of about $104, isn't that sort of irrational exuberence on the part of the investors or is it because of the promises of the upcoming products?

The investors have already seen the earnings of the current products.
What's your take? I mean is it too overpriced or is it value-laden gem?

thanks for your thanks Mr. Hyde,

well, it is all for peeps with greed (called monies) for Iphone. (Period). Nothing wrong with that as long as those are calculated risk. The ones that you "feel" good about, and not what you "hear" about.

Like Emini has prescribed time and again, do not go with the herd... figure what you know, figure what you are, and then make your choices.

ani, Superman3 ma Mcguire says, we all have choices. Hai na!


Best!

-B

Yeah, being a contrarian helps.

No problem Bri, take your time. I realized today I had forgotten file my taxes. BOO Let me go back to Apple again. Apple's margins on the iphone are expected to be as high as 45%!!!! Thats a whack load!!!!

So I think the stock has already discounted that rumour into its price. So the Iphone being the next hot thing that Apple is gonna come out with, we will see a dip in the stock price the day earnings come out with results for iphone- the reason being initially, the company will have to cover up for it's fixed costs- Economics 101 that you studied at uni.(at least that's what I expect)

If I were to enter Apple, THATS when I'd buy it. After the market kicks its butt and the stock dips temporarily.

Leave apple for now- let the tree grow and let it stoop under its own weight. thats when you wanna climb it.

Mr Hyde:
thats a mix of both. Irrational because of hopes of future returns.

Bri:
For the chip maker, I think I remember making some good profits on the company that makes it's chips. That was a while ago and would have to look up all of my trades to find that out. But any search on google should uncover it. But i'm not sure if it was the same company.

And you'll enjoy Darvas. I wish I had the time to read up on more books. I'm completing a derivatives course right now and it takes up my time- not to mention my morning trading activity.

Some Market Commentary:
We saw some weakness on the QQQQ (the NASDAQ 100 ETF). I would proceed with caution with technology stocks. But I'm still bullish INTEL with my price target 25.00 intermediate and higher up in the long term.

The SPY cosolidated as well so i would proceed with caution over the next few days. If you are just entering the market, or making your first investment, do it after a few days once the sky is clear.

The Mid caps- IWM also had a shaky day, finishing off with a 28 point loss. But still, no need to be concerend about the updtrend as the mid caps have had a fantastic run over the last few years.

however, no mater if its the bulliest of all bull markets, always proceed with caution. Preserve Captial and then make money.

HP:
Trading at 52 week high. Excellent quarter and good outlook. Stock has dipped today due to profit taking ith markets down .5% already.

Awesome time to buy this baby.

I say get in once it shows signs of revarsal.

Or at least look forward to uying towards the end of day if things are calmer, otherwsie, wait till th market is in the green again.

My target : 55

Ok,
I just felt like I should post this too. I'm not tryna be a smartass or anything but it's kind of important.

150 is a very important level for the SPY (the S&P 500 depository ETF).

If it can hold that level, we'll still see some very normal market activity. If it breaks down, watch for support in the 149.75 region. It should go back up from one of these two levels. But just on the cautionary side, if it breaks through both levels, we might see some correction again and so I'd stay in cash that way. But we will only be able to tell by the end of the day.

I'm officially in cash today. I had held no positions overnight and quickly took the $30 loss I made on a trade. I'm glad I did, cuz the stock is down 5% today. That wouldve been a 400 dollar loss!!!!

All of my watclist is in the red today and the QQQQs are gettin totally slaughtered.

The mid caps are down more than 1%. Just shows you how important the big caps are for the economy. When the smaller guys are hit hard, they get punched bad.

So stay on the sidelines for a couple days. If you're a new investory, don't be discouraged by events like these but just be cautious for now.

I'll keep posting.

(These ideas are found everywhere on the internet. Just helps when someone posts them on a common thread where everyone can see.)

TT

TT,

my take is the same... stay in cash... if you are in the monies, watch the market...

Asia and Europe had bad day, and it followed a lil bit here... first half an hour was all red...

I got rid of ESLR... took 500 bucks-range loss.. offffffffffff... well, still learning....

am still in CMGI, NFLX, RADS and SUNW... I know most of them are tech picks.. but that is what I am good at... gotta learn on financial.. believe me....

If Fridays finish strong, Mondays rally on it. I have seen some of that trend. But Tuesday is a whole game different. See that!

also, start of the month and end of the months seasonality I want to observe as per Smith...

la ta!

-B

Hmm,

Why'd you buy ESLR? It is clearly in a downtrend. But sorry to hear that. Hopefully it wasn't quite as bad as my 25% portfolio wipeout a cpl months of which I'm still recovering.

:P

And CMGI looks good. I don;t know when yu bought RADS but that baby looks poised for some correction so I may get out of it.

and SUNW, I don't know when you bought SUNW but if it was anywhere in 2007, I am sorry for anyone who did that.

HP is on my radar for the moment along with INTEL for semis.

I will probably own ELN over 15.25

TT,

ESLR was stupid.. I agree... *wink*... went with the hype and not the facts..

CMGI looks good.. I am on it...

SUNW, I got in at 5.20... and I now this baby might just bring some money very soon.. My bet is Java getting onto the cell phones and SUNW reaping royality benefits like Qualcomm... let me see if that materializes.... will get out if it starts downfalling.

Rads I will get rid off.. just waiting if shows any recovery signs...

Happy Lunch Hour now!

Best~!

-B

Hmm, good plan there.

Yea, i was kind of scared when u mentioned SUNW. If there's anything I've learnt from two years of trading and losing a shit load is not jumping in once a massive correction takes place. But provided your fundamentals work out, yeah you are due for some good reaping but you may have to wait a while and brace youself for a bumpy ride.

:D

Looks like you're at work. I'm chillin at home.:D

yeap Moi at work... chillin at home with a beer in hand, hahaha?.. too early for that I guess...

Ani, there are quite a bit of brawls between paki and indian cricketers in your area... offffffffff.. . you have few clubs that you may want to try, that is , if you want to take your time off Wall St.. hahhaa .. lemme know if interested...

Hmm...not that I know of Bri.

A guy i know is from Pakistan and he's been trying for the Canadian nationals. He says in his club there are all sorts of people- black, white, mostly indians and pakistanis.

But you could be right- considering I've never played since I came here.

And beer? nah..lol....even if I were a drinker (which I'm not), I wouldnt be able to drink with mum on my side.

She's also a much better trader than myself. At least her risk management is better.

TT

LOL yeah.... men take risk, women tend to manage risk better...

cricket in North America is basically composed of sub-continent peeps, Carribean peeps, and some here and there whites from commonwealth nations.... but it is loads of fun when common cause aka cricket brings all these peeps together on the week-end....

So you belong to a Traders' family.. hahhaha... nice!

will write an email to ya now.

Best~~
-B

LMAO no...I'm the first in the family. hehe...i meant that my mum sits down with me whenever she has the chance and see swhat I'm doing. She's a technician basically...lol...if she sees something going up...she asks me to jump in and a lot of times they work...

But anyways,

I just jumped into a few stocks- out of sheer speculative desire. I have nothing to lose so I'm taking all the liberty.

GNTX and ELY.

Lets see how these two fare.

TT,

anything in particular that you have on GNTX? I see that they have some scope to improve as a 2nd to the leader in the industry.

fundamentals look good.

But I am not sure if this one is going to break the 52-week high barrier? if you think otherwise, lemme know why?

ELY, I shall say away, unless you are buying "seasonal."

Best~!

-B

I am on the fourth chapter on Nicholas Dravas.


I really like it. He sums up almost everything on humane side of trading. The number's side has changed a lot since that era though.

Best~!

-B

Bri:

Like I said, these are hghly speculative plays. ELY is more stable than GNTX. But look how well both held up even in today's profit taking session.
The sellers were definitely in control today but this is all a game of probability and not necessarily of expectation.

With ELY, we have an all time high support. With GNTX, it has found support at about 18.75 and thatll be my stop.

these guys make mirrors for cars, some fancy types. And their sales have been blasting thru the roof despite sluggish car sales- meaning theyre being used in old cars too, i mean why not haina?

So those are my reasons.

I'll follow them and see how they go. 50 dollar loss, I can tolerate. I'm still in school so it's all easy for me.

:D